China removes oil rig that triggered Vietnam riots from disputed waters
AP...
It said oil and gas has been discovered during the operation, but was assessing the data gathered before deciding its next move. It has always been unclear whether the Beijing deployed the rig for genuine exploration reasons or geopolitical ones. When it announced the deployment, Beijing said it would withdraw it on Aug. 15, also citing the typhoon season.
Ha Le, deputy director of Vietnam’s fisheries resources surveillance department, said China began removing the rig and escorting vessels Tuesday night, and by 8 a.m. Wednesday it was 40 nautical miles northwest of its original location and continuing to move toward Hainan island.
Le said 30 vessels from Vietnam’s coast guard and fisheries patrol forces that were sent to try to force the Chinese oil rig away will return to port to avoid the incoming Rammasun typhoon.
China’s unwillingness to move the rig exposed Vietnam’s lack of options when dealing with its giant neighbor. The workings of the Vietnamese government are shrouded in secrecy, but it has long been assumed that the Communist Party is split between a faction that favors a tough line against Beijing — and consequentially stronger ties with the United States and its allies in Asia — and those members who believe a compromise can be reached with their ideological allies to the north.
As a result of the rig placement, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has said the country was preparing to file a legal challenge to China’s claims in an international tribunal, something that risks angering China. It remains to be seen whether Vietnam will go ahead with that now the rig has been withdrawn.
Former Vietnamese Ambassador to Beijing Nguyen Trong Vinh said China’s removal of the rig didn’t signal a change of attitude on behalf of the country.
“The removal of the oil rig from our continental shelf and exclusive economic zone is only temporary. Maybe they pulled out the oil rig ahead of the typhoon season. It does not mean that they have abandoned their resolve to take control of most of the East Sea,” he said, using the Vietnamese term for the South China Sea.
EXTRACT ONLY - Source - The Japan Times - here.
--------------------------------------------
Article Publisher Background
Toshiaki Ogasawara has been Chairman of The Japan Times Ltd. since 2001 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer and Publisher. ... He served as an Advisory Director with Bank of America. Mr. Ogasawara ...Board Members Memberships*
TrusteeUniversity of Southern CaliforniaUnknown/Other EducationWoodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs - [Princeton University]
Other Affiliations*
--------------------------------------------University of Southern California...Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs [Princeton University]Business Breakthrough, Inc. [Educational services - Tokyo Japan]...
Source - Business Newsweek - here.
Vietnam Government
The Socialist Republic of Vietnam, along with China, Cuba, and Laos, is one of the world's four remaining single-party socialist states officially espousing communism. Its current state constitution, which replaced the 1975 constitution in April 1992, asserts the central role of the Communist Party of Vietnam in all organs of government, politics and society.--------------------------------------------
[wikipedia]
Japan Government
Japan is a member of the G8, APEC, and "ASEAN Plus Three", and is a participant in the East Asia Summit. Japan signed a security pact with Australia in March 2007 and with India in October 2008.--------------------------------------------
It is the world's third largest donor of official development assistance after the United States and France, donating US$9.48 billion in 2009.
Japan has close economic and military relations with the United States; the US-Japan security alliance acts as the cornerstone of the nation's foreign policy. A member state of the United Nations since 1956, Japan has served as a non-permanent Security Council member for a total of 20 years, most recently for 2009 and 2010. It is one of the G4 nations seeking permanent membership in the Security Council.
Japan is engaged in several territorial disputes with its neighbors: with Russia over the South Kuril Islands, with South Korea over the Liancourt Rocks, with China and Taiwan over the Senkaku Islands, and with China over the EEZ around Okinotorishima. Japan also faces an ongoing dispute with North Korea over the latter's abduction of Japanese citizens and its nuclear weapons and missile program (see also Six-party talks).
Japan maintains one of the largest military budgets of any country in the world. Japan contributed non-combatant troops to the Iraq War but subsequently withdrew its forces.
[wikipedia]
COMMENT
[NOTE - The above background info is largely for my own benefit, trying to make out who's who.]
China pulling its oil rig from the contested waters is a development which may -- or may not -- influence current negotiations purportedly taking place between Vietnam and both US and Russia, in respect of the Cam Rhan Bay port -- a deep sea port 'seven miles from open sea', which has recently been upgraded to the tune of millions of dollars and is capable of accommodating aircraft carriers as well as docking and maintaining sea vessels.
So the question is, which way will Vietnam turn and: is the Communist Party in Vietnam divided when it comes to deciding how to best address maritime territorial interests?
Vietnamese Communist Party factional divisions (if any) can only be guessed at.
However, I suspect that alliance-shy Vietnam is looking to make the best deal it can negotiate and, as mentioned, discussions are purportedly 'well under-way' with both Russia and the US.
From the US perspective, Vietnam has common interests with with the US who:
... also wants to protect what is, according to a 2012 U.S. estimates, $1.2 trillion in U.S. trade transiting along South China Sea shipping lanes.
[Source - stripes.com]
Of course, the US also has military interests in the Asia-Pacific region, so Cam Rahn Bay access is also of wider strategic military value to the US.
At this stage (June 2014), it appears that the US is quietly hopeful that the Vietnam's attitude has warmed towards the US in more recent times:
What is also interesting is that the US has set up the PSI (Proliferation Security Initiative) which received over 50% UN support since its inception:“There have been remarkable strides already made in last few years, and it’s been very rapid since 2010 in terms of U.S.-Vietnam military relationships,” said Christian Le Mière, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Continued assertiveness by China in the South China Sea will only further convince the Vietnamese that they should be expanding their international alliances, and that includes the United States.”
The U.S. Navy has been making port visits to Da Nang in recent years, engaging in activities that started with sports and ship tours with Vietnamese sailors, and developed into a joint search-and-rescue exercise last year. Greater U.S. Navy access to Cam Ranh Bay, further south near Nha Trang, would represent a bigger step in the military-to-military relationship.
The deep water port is about seven miles from open sea and is capable of accommodating aircraft carriers, and its facilities recently underwent millions of dollars in upgrades. Its airport is used by both Vietnamese military forces and by commercial carriers.U.S. Military Sealift Command ships have visited for repairs — the first came along with former U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in 2012 — but no active U.S. Navy ship has visited the port since the Vietnam War.
[Source - stripes.com]
Launched by United States President George W. Bush in May 2003 at a meeting in Kraków, Poland, the PSI has now grown to include the endorsement of 103...nations around the world, including Russia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Singapore, New Zealand, Republic of Korea and Norway. Despite the support of over half of the Members of the United Nations, a number of countries have expressed opposition to the initiative, including India, China and Indonesia.Vietnam, along with China, appears to have opposed the PSI initiative -- until Vietnam backed off last month:
[wikipedia]
PSI was created by the U.S and Poland in 2003 as an international effort to interdict [prohibit] vessels carrying weapons of mass destruction, and it has since garnered signatories from more than 100 countries.
Vietnam joined with China in strenuously arguing that PSI violated international law, until Hanoi changed its mind last month.
“It’s a bait on the hook to request the United States to assist in standing up their ability to conduct maritime reconnaissance and surveillance, and link to shore-based radars and other technical equipment,” Thayer said.
The additional U.S. presence could force China to act less aggressively in the area, while at the same time allowing Vietnam to show that it took no provocative action against China.
[Source - stripes.com]
If I have that straight, it would seem that Vietnam backing off from opposing the PSI is perhaps signalling it may be inclined towards making way for US presence at the Cam Rahn Bay facilities -- or it may simply be one of the concessions Vietnam is willing to make in the interim, towards forwarding its Cam Rahn negotiations.
Uncertain what the 'bait in the hook' request is & too lazy to re-visit article (LOL). Expect Vietnam has requested the US to assist in Vietnam with reconnaissance and surveillance, if I'm reading that right.
Uncertain what the 'bait in the hook' request is & too lazy to re-visit article (LOL). Expect Vietnam has requested the US to assist in Vietnam with reconnaissance and surveillance, if I'm reading that right.
Whatever the outcome of negotiations, the US are purportedly keen on getting a foot in the Cam Rahn door.
One suspects that even if negotiations fail, the US would not be averse to creating an 'international logistics hub' via a less 'threatening' option (to Vietnam) -- ie the 'Places Not Bases' initiative -- where it would be envisaged that the Cam Rahn Bay facilities would provide the US with assured access for repair, refuelling, restocking and so on (as well as presence in the region), on an informal "partner" arrangement basis, such as the one the US has apparently negotiated with Singapore.
One suspects that even if negotiations fail, the US would not be averse to creating an 'international logistics hub' via a less 'threatening' option (to Vietnam) -- ie the 'Places Not Bases' initiative -- where it would be envisaged that the Cam Rahn Bay facilities would provide the US with assured access for repair, refuelling, restocking and so on (as well as presence in the region), on an informal "partner" arrangement basis, such as the one the US has apparently negotiated with Singapore.
The 'Places Not Bases' strategy is explained below:
... the Pentagon fashioned a policy of “places, not bases,” whereby the U.S. military sought access to naval facilities of “partner” countries.
Compared to “bases” run by formal allies such as South Korea and Japan, “places” in Singapore — and other countries such as Malaysia and Brunei — enabled the U.S. military to maintain its presence in the region ...
Singapore is the quintessential example of such a “places, not bases” strategy.
SOURCE - The China Post (Taiwan) - here.
So will Vietnam look towards the east or the west when it comes to negotiating maritime concerns in the region?
If The Japan Times is correct, the final decision may depend on intra-party politics in Vietnam.
Politics aside, Vietnam's decision may well pivot on how attractive the commercial prospects are for Vietnam.
Or ... on how impressed they may be with Bill Clinton's visit (LOL):
--------------------------------------------
Thanhnien News
Bill Clinton to visit Vietnam again
Former US President Bill Clinton will return to Vietnam on Friday (July 18) as part of his Asia-Pacific trip to visit the work of the Clinton Foundation and deliver remarks at the 20th International AIDS Conference, according to a release by the Clinton Foundation.
Clinton, who visited Vietnam for the first time in November 2000, is scheduled to visit India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Australia from July 16-23.
The trip highlights Clinton’s longstanding commitment to the Asia/Pacific region, as well as the work of the Clinton Foundation on a number of issues that are critical to the region, including global health and improved access to medicines, climate change and economic development, the release said.
In Vietnam, he will visit an orphanage outside of Hanoi to view a Clinton Health Access Initiative program that aims to prevent tuberculosis among children living with HIV.
Clinton's November 2000 visit to Vietnam was the first by a US President since the two countries normalized diplomatic relations in 1995, 20 years after the end of the Vietnam War.
He later returned to Vietnam in several occasions to promote work of the Clinton Foundation in the country.
Source - Thanhnien News - here.
--------------------------------------------
Hmmm ... what a coincidence Bill's in town.
Charity foundations really are the way to go; good access, favourable impressions etc.
