Investigative Journalist, John Pilger: US Preparation for Conflict - China on High Alert

HIGH ALERT: CHINA Response to US Aggresssion John Pilger on the Threat of World War Three (Going Underground) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahEdcuxlN1o SUMMARY (BASIC) John Pilger on the Threat of World War Three (Going Underground) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahEdcuxlN1o AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES Classically America-first populist in  Donald Trump or the absolute embodiment of the system that has run seamlessly since 1945 (Hillary Clinton) Sanders - voted to destroy Yugoslavia - voted to put Edward Snowden on trial - called Hugo Chávez (Venezuela) a dictator Pilger: Let's get the quote exactly right.  He was asked about Chávez and he called Chávez a "dead communist dictator" Pilger: I don't think there's anything in Senator Sanders' foreign policy that offers any encouragement to any of us. [...] Sanders has offered health care to the only developed country that doesn't have a proper healthcare system. He wants to do something about the barons of Wall Street.  Good luck.  He's not going to be president. Pilger US is in a frenzy of preparation for a conflict of some kind. Conflict of some kind can lead to war of the real kind, against: China & against Russia, on two fronts RUSSIA Greatest (US-led) build-up of forces since WWII has happened in Eastern Europe and in the Baltic States. US expansion & military preparation HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED IN THE WEST UKRAINE Since the US paid for for & controlled US coup in that country Ukraine has become an American preserve CIA Theme Park - CIA are all over it - special forces are all over it - American business is all over it - Joe Biden's son is appointed to various Ukraine fracking companies Full American interest has gone to a country that is Russia's borderland through which the Germans invaded the Soviet Union in the early 1940s with the cost of something like 27 million lives Imagine the equivalent in the US:  the border with Mexico, the border with Canada Refers to Russia's cuban situated missiles which almost resulted in WWIII The USA, which constitutionally has the freest media in the world, these war preparations against Russia and against China HAVE NOT BEEN MENTIONED. When China is mentioned, it's about China's 'aggressive moves' in the South China Sea. It's interesting how the public is being primed to accept so-called 'aggressive' moves by China WHEN, IN FACT, THEY'RE CLEARLY DEFENSIVE MOVES USA MILITARY BASES THREAT The United States has something like 400 major bases encircling China, starting in Australia, going through Asia, Japan & Korea Looking at Shanghai is Okinawa, which has 32 American military installations Japan has 130 in all Okinawa is about the size of Long Island Imagine Long Island as a Chinese base, looking straight at New York; that's the equivalent Reporter Do you think multinational corporations and Wall Street would allow -- they haven't allowed a full-scale war from President Obama against Beijing and surely ... Pilger: I don't know.  ... China is America's first trading partner.  It is a trading partner. Most of the things that Americans wear are made in China.  ... China has almost replaced Japan in that sense:  the great manufacturing centre of the world. America has this close business relationship with China.  I don't know, is the answer to that. ... What I think is interesting and dangerous, and I don't think it's been recognised is the ascendency of military thinking -- the Pentagon in Washington.  Recently, the State Dept. broke its silence on this and said to the Defence Dept:  let us handle the diplomacy, let us handle the relations with countries, you do the military side of things (paraphrasing) ... an extraordinary outburst coming from an official in the state department, where there is great frustration about this ubiquitous power now of the military, and this seems to be embodied in this Defence Secretary Ashton Carter, who seems to go from conference to conference -- G7; now he's gone to Singapore threatening countries. TRUMP Trump has said he doesn't want to go to war with China or with Russia. Trump wonders why America is all over the world.  He wonders about the power of NATO. This is 'heresy'. (As at 4 June 2016) - US has sent guided missile ships in last two weeks into disputed zone in South China Sea For the first time Chinese fighter jets were scrambled; a week or so later, an American spy plane was intercepted by planes. So many wars begin accidentally, or by mistake. We had one of America's leading and most interesting generals, James Cartwright, talk about this recently. DANGER OF PREEMPTIVE NUCLEAR STRIKES James Cartwright talked about the 'hair trigger system', which now gives the leaders of the country (ie USA), really minutes, in which to decide whether they will launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack or whether they will respond to a pre-emptive nuclear attack. ... at a conference in Virginia, former U.S. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright acknowledged that "there's the potential that you could, in fact, generate a scenario where, in a bolt from the blue, we launch a pre-emptive attack and then use missile defense to weed out" Russia's remaining missiles launched in response. "We're going to have to think our way out of this," he said. "We're going to have to figure out how we're going to do this." [2013 Source] HAIR-TRIGGER ALERT  roots in Cold War http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/hair-trigger-alert CHINA - ON HIGH ALERT One of the most worrying aspects is that China clearly has taken on-board that CHINA IS BEING SERIOUSLY THREATENED. Up to now China has kept it's nuclear weapons have been kept on low alert:  that is, the weapon and the warhead have been kept separately.  Whereas, the US and Russia have always kept their nuclear weapons on high alert.  The literature that's available now suggests that China is on NUCLEAR HIGH ALERT. Just last week (circa 4 June 2016), Chinese submarines armed with nuclear weapons went on patrol in the Pacific for the first time. NONE OF THIS IS EVEN MENTIONED IN THE AMERICAN ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Venezuela - Economic Hassles Puzzle

Venezuela

• Top end South America
• (officially called the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (Do *not confuse with Bolivia)
• Colonised by Spain 1500s
• First to declare independence (1811 ... secured 1821)
• One of the most urbanised countries of Latin America
• ... world's largest oil reserves and [has] been one of the world's leading exporters of oil.
• Previously an underdeveloped exporter of agricultural commodities such as coffee and cocoa, oil quickly came to dominate exports and government revenues.
• 1980s oil glut = external debt crisis + long-running economic crisis
• (inflation peak @ 100% 1996)

[Source - Wikipedia - here]

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Forbes Article - here.

Noticed high inflation in Venezuela, and having discovered 'hyperinflation' in the little tutorial, thought I'd check out Venezuela.

So their economy ... is what?  Either a depressed economy or a war economy, judging by tutorial? 

Background:

President Hugo Chavez (Socialist) died 2013. 

Venezuela is described as a 'South American oil giant' and the article indicates this isn't the worst economic period it's experienced. 

IMF makes an appearance. Inflation 'running rampant', according to IMF. Low economy growth. Economy shrinkage.

... devaluation of the currency in the case of Venezuela represents a reallocation of resources from the private to the public sector, which is practically the only exporter thanks to oil giant PDVSA.

If IMF has something to say, then there's most likely an IMF debt involved.

Moving onto the 2010 Article -  

Economist - 'Towards State Socialism' - here:

Article's dated, but it seemed to have good information.

GDP 'contracting' (less production); 'currency supply problem' mentioned. 

 Possible 'deepening' of recession mentioned. 

So, Venezuela's is a depressed economy.

Article indicates:  Decline in oil shipments associated with decline in oil export. There's also a decline in oil prices.  

[Don't understand how you can sit on oil but have a decline.]

The Economist

Chavez the socialist president (1999-2013) had progressively been nationalising everything:

... seizing everything from steel companies and bottle makers to housing schemes. When workers have protested, he has deployed the national guard against them. The government has justified the confiscations by saying that it was breaking up monopolies or stopping breaches of labour or environmental rules. But the aim appears to be to move decisively against what Mr Chávez calls “the oligarchy”...

2007/2008 Chavez government took over the private oil sector (and more) -- or what there was of it.

Economist reports that:

any bank which declined to “co-operate with national development” by assigning credit according to government priorities would also be taken over.

[Don't suppose they attract much investment, then?  Wouldn't most businesses shut shop?]

Country appears partly 'nationalised' (ie national/state property vs private property) -  some industry in govt hands and rest private hands. 

Govt portion GDP did nothing since the late 1990s .

Oil boom 2004-2008.

Nationalised companies are producing less than when they were in private hands.

To gain 'food sovereignty', most of the food industry has been nationalised, but (the Economist reports) there's been a steep increase in imports.

Couple of exceptions: milk company and telecommunications company ... have done well.

What tends to happen:

... once companies are in state hands their staffing levels rise, prices fall and they become dependent on government subsidies.

Construction industry damaged by slump in materials production since nationalisation.

'Housing schemes' slowed or stopped.  

Govt won't allow developers to ask for prices in line with inflation rises (as at 2010 article @ 30% -- now over 60%).

Govt took over what was already largely govt controlled oil industry:  production of crude and refined products dropped.

Article closes:

Polls suggest that most Venezuelans disapprove of the nationalisations and firmly support private property. But Mr Chávez seems to be following the advice of Alan Woods, a Welsh Trotskyist who has become an informal adviser. Mr Woods, who is better known in Caracas than Cardiff, publicly urged the president to respond to his electoral setback by “accelerating the revolutionary process”, expropriating land, banks and the main industries. Venezuelans had better brace themselves for more nationalisation, scarcity and economic decline.

So what is driving the the inflation rate?

I'd like to apply the inflation lesson, but I'm not sure I've got it.

Cost of production has risen - more employees; less efficiency; government subsidy of industry; so it's like bleeding out money and it costs more to produce the goods because bleeding out the money eats into the profits? Also, less goods are being produced. *NB also money going out on *imports*.

Checking out what the go is with the oil not moving, came across this article - Bloomberg Feb 2014 - here.

Bloomberg says:

Venezuela’s plummeting oil sales to the U.S., its biggest export market, are exacerbating a collapse in the nation’s debt securities. 

Bonds released by Venezuela 'sank'.  Sank doesn't sound too good. Don't know enough about bonds to judge why they 'sank'.  No idea what this is about.

Article goes on:

The tumble in oil exports, Venezuela’s biggest source of dollars, comes as President Nicolas Maduro faces a shortage of U.S. currency that’s caused consumer prices to soar 56 percent and foreign reserves to plunge to a decade-low of $21 billion. Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state-run oil producer known as PDVSA, is sending hundreds of thousands of barrels a day to China to repay loans totaling more than $40 billion since 2008, at a time when its production is shrinking. 

When they're not producing as much oil, they're sending it to China to repay a debt and they're losing out on US trade they otherwise would have had (?) -- and on US currency (or is that just income, as opposed to a specific currency?) because of lost sales of oil to the US, which is driving the inflation.

Think I might need to do a bit more reading on Venezuela and on bonds, foreign reserves etc. because  have no idea.  LOL.

So far, it's been fun trying to figure it out.