'Germany, Want to Rid Yourself of Russian Gas? Turbo-Charge the Energiewende!'
Posted August 7, 2014
Merkel And Medvedev Inaugurate Nord Stream Gas Pipeline
Last week, the US and the EU hit Russia with a new sanctions regime in order to punish its continued meddling in destabilizing Eastern Ukraine. The economic restrictions are dubbed ‘Stage Three’ sanctions, indicating the increased level of severity meant to further ratchet up costs to the Russian economy. The sanctions now target Russian banking, defense, and energy sectors.
As for the latter, “both the EU and the United States will ban export of technologies to Russia for deep-water, Arctic or shale oil drilling,” The Guardian newspaper writes. Interestingly, the article also notes that “sanctions from the EU, which does far more trade with Russia, will be reviewed in three months.” The EU compared to the US has much more at stake – check out data (Eurostat, 2013) on imports, exports, and trade volumes between Russia and the EU in an interactive graphic provided by Der Spiegel.
In addition, given that about 30 per cent of the EU’s overall gas consumption – ... is covered by Russian natural gas imports, it is no wonder that the EU may want to reconsider its ‘tough’ stance before the winter. The EU cannot have an interest in joining the Russian Bear in what might be called “economic hibernation” due to severe repercussions in the energy realm on both sides. A 2006 Russian natural gas shutoff left many Europeans without heating fuel during a bitter cold winter.
As expected, Russia responded defiantly to the new sweeping EU/US sanctions, threatening to increase energy prices in a statement by the Russian foreign ministry cited by EUobserver:
“Obsessed with sanctions, Brussels is itself creating barriers for further cooperation in such a key sector as energy industry ...
In light of this threat a timely study by experts from the renowned German Frauenhofer Institute (IWES), commissioned by the German Green Party faction in the German parliament, explains how ... Germany could completely wean itself off Russian natural gas imports. The study titled in German “Erdgassubstitution durch eine forcierte Energiewende” (“How a turbo-charged ‘Energiewende’ can replace natural gas imports”) concludes that Germany could be independent of Russian gas imports by 2030 at the earliest.
At that point of time, Germany could cut down on Russian gas imports entirely, which is equivalent to about 400 TWh of German energy consumption per year based on 2013 figures. The authors go on to explain that Germany consumed about 900 terawatt-hours (TWh) – equivalent to about 102,600 megawatts (MW) by doing a rough conversion to megawatts – in 2013 with 96 TWh thereof attributed to its own domestic production. Charts show that Germany imported 1,040 TWh – including natural gas transits – and re-exported 226 TWh, leaving it with a net natural gas import balance of 814 TWh in 2013. Russian natural gas accounted for 38.7 per cent of these imports.
However, in order to significantly reduce dependence on natural gas imports ahead of 2050 – the legislative goal as outlined in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) 2.0 – an initial investment of 300 billion Euros is required now through 2028 in order to reap the benefits from overall energy system procurement savings through 2050, which then would make this gigantic endeavor profitable, the authors claim. Moreover, the initial investment has to be accompanied by general energy efficiency measures such as the reduction of energy consumption through energy efficiency of buildings, geothermal heat and energy, power-to-heat, conversion of electricity into synthetic fuel (power-to-gas), the use of biomethane as a natural gas substitute, biomass energy, and solar. By implementing such a holistic view of the power generation and heating sectors, the above measures could already yield a substantial reduction in natural gas imports by 2025.
The following graphic nicely illustrates the path – as outlined by the experts of the German Fraunhofer Institute – to a reduction in natural gas imports by turbo-charging as well as optimizing the ‘Energiewende’:
It is important to note that the above-described scenario does not include the potential of increased domestic natural gas production through ‘fracking’ or future direct German LNG imports from global markets via a yet-to-be built import terminal in Wilhelmshaven.
Lastly, given the enormous costs and relatively long time frame to accomplish total energy independence from Russia – probably neither smart nor cost-effectively achievable to begin with – it would not even be a stunning turn of events if ‘clean’ coal became down the road the big ‘energy savior’ in Europe. So, get ready US coal for a European Energy Emergency! Der Spiegel cites estimates that show coal helping Germany to wean itself off Russian gas in about ten years. Remember, we live in a very volatile world and just like geopolitical change, governments along with their policies change in response. Stay tuned….
http://theenergycollective.com/jared-anderson/455716/germany-want-rid-yourself-russian-gas-turbo-charge-energiewende
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Germany, UK and Europe
need ENERGY.
Forget the renewable stuff. They need hard-core dependable energy.
It's a case of : GET READY US SHALE / LNG.
Liquid Natural Gas
Until the mid-1990s, LNG demand was heavily concentrated in Northeast Asia: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. At the same time, Pacific Basin supplies dominated world LNG trade. The world-wide interest in using natural gas-fired combined cycle generating units for electric power generation, coupled with the inability of North American and North Sea natural gas supplies to meet the growing demand, substantially broadened the regional markets for LNG. It also brought new Atlantic Basin and Middle East suppliers into the trade.
By the end of 2011, there were 18 LNG exporting countries and 25 LNG importing countries. The three biggest LNG exporters in 2011 were Qatar (75.5 MT), Malaysia (25 MT) and Indonesia (21.4 MT). The three biggest LNG importers in 2011 were Japan (78.8 MT), South Korea (35 MT) and UK (18.6 MT). LNG trade volumes increased ... new LNG supply from six new plants comes to the market just in 2009, including:
Northwest Shelf Train 5: 4.4 MTPA
Sakhalin II: 9.6 MTPA
Yemen LNG: 6.7 MTPA
Tangguh: 7.6 MTPA
Qatargas: 15.6 MTPA
Rasgas Qatar: 15.6 MTPA
In 2006, Qatar became the world's biggest exporter of LNG. As of 2012, Qatar is the source of 25 percent of the world's LNG exports.
Investments in U.S. export facilities were increasing by 2013—such as the plant being built in Hackberry, Louisiana by Sempra Energy. These investments were spurred by increasing shale gas production in the United States and a large price differential between natural gas prices in the U.S. and those in Europe and Asia. However, general exports had not yet been authorized by the United States Department of Energy because the United States had only recently moved from an importer to self-sufficiency status. When U.S. exports are authorized, large demand for LNG in Asia was expected to mitigate price decreases due to increased supplies from the U.S. [WIKPEDIA]
The US has a shit-load of LNG it needs a market for. Hello Europe.
That's why snatching gas supply from Russia is so important -- and it's also why Ukraine's natural resources are important.
This isn't about 'democracy' or 'protecting' anyone in Europe; it's about a grab for energy, resources and strategic control.
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