Parmenides' Fallacy

---------------------- ꕤ ----------------------  Parmenides' Fallacy COPYRIGHT DISCLAIMER Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research.

Parmenides a Pre-Socratic Greek philosopher born in Italy; held the metaphysical view that being is the basic substance and ultimate reality of which all things are composed; said that motion and change are sensory illusions (5th century BC) SOURCE | ABOVE http://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/Parmenides ---------------------- ꕤ ---------------------- SOURCE | BELOW Forbes Margie Warrell Contributor Book:  Stop Playing Safe http://www.forbes.com/sites/margiewarrell/2013/03/19/the-parmenides-fallacy-are-you-ignoring-the-cost-of-inaction/  EXTRACTS / SUMMARY Bad situation indecision = stuck with status quo hoping things get better (but they get worse) Human beings are neurologically wired to: over-estimate the size of risks under-estimate our ability to handle them downplay the costs of inaction "... by choosing not to make a change or take a chance ... you can wind up incurring steep costs, in ways you can’t possibly foresee from where you are right now" [ REFERS TO ] "Professor Philip Bobbit from the University of Texas has even given a name to the human tendency to assume the present situation will remain the same. He calls it ‘Parmenides Fallacy,’ after the misguided Greek philosopher who argued that the world was static and that all change was an illusion." result:  "drives us to stick with the status quo – even one we dislike" "Parmenides Fallacy serves as a reminder to not to kid ourselves; choosing to do nothing..." SOURCE | ABOVE Forbes Margie Warrell Contributor Book:  Stop Playing Safe http://www.forbes.com/sites/margiewarrell/2013/03/19/the-parmenides-fallacy-are-you-ignoring-the-cost-of-inaction/  Margie Warrell Error 404 - page not found http://margiewarrell.com/stopplayinsafe Margie Warrell "an international thought leader in human potential" "professional background in Fortune 500 business, psychology, and coaching" "Her clients include NASA, British Telecom, Oracle, Body Shop, PWC and the Australian Federal Police." "bestselling author, Forbes Columnist  ..." " ... sought out by leading media outlets such as The Today Show, FOX News, CNBC and Al Jazeera, Psychology Today and Wall Street Journal. She is also a regular contributor on Australia’s ABC News Breakfast and Sunrise.    ...  international media outlets from the Wall Street Journal to The Today Show. She is also regular commentator on Australia’s Sunrise and ABC News Breakfast." http://margiewarrell.com/ ---------------------- ꕤ ---------------------- SOURCE - BELOW Aakash "I am a speck of dust in this universe, who is going to create a whole new universe someday." http://logically-illogical.blogspot.com/2008/02/parmenides-fallacy.html Parmenides' Fallacy All our decisions are generally based upon the measurement of the future benefits that can be drawn by making that decision. How will it make us better of than what we presently are. This is the fundamental clause in the decision making of most of the managers while making any investment. But what is interesting to note is that the things in the normal circumstances will constantly deteriorate in their own. So, if we don't take any decision then we might be worse off in future than what we are now. So, if the investment is made then it might be that we would be worse off than now but better off than we would have been without it.  [ ... ] SOURCE - ABOVE Aakash "I am a speck of dust in this universe, who is going to create a whole new universe someday." http://logically-illogical.blogspot.com/2008/02/parmenides-fallacy.html ---------------------- ꕤ ---------------------- SOURCE - BELOW Opinion, NYT Today's War Is Against Tomorrow's Iraq By PHILIP BOBBITT Philip Bobbitt, a law professor at the University of Texas Published: March 10, 2003 http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/10/opinion/10BOBB.html EXTRACTS ONLY President Bush has again made his case for war against Iraq, and again his primary argument is the threat that Saddam Hussein poses to America. The president's critics are quick to point out that the Central Intelligence Agency and other experts feel that, for the moment, Saddam Hussein is unlikely to conduct terrorist attacks against America. However, they warn us, if an invasion threatens his regime, his agents or his extremist sympathizers might well attack us — possibly even using weapons of mass destruction. So is it really a good idea to press ahead with regime change? Aren't we better off now than we would be if we invade Iraq and risk setting off a dreadful response? These are natural questions, but they are neither logical nor helpful. They are a prime example in our public discourse of what might be called "Parmenides' Fallacy" — named after the Greek philosopher who held that all change was illusion. This fallacy occurs when one tries to assess a future state of affairs by measuring it against the present, as opposed to comparing it to other possible futures. Let me give a famous example of Parmenides' Fallacy in operation. [...] So, as we look to the future, we must stop debating whether invading Iraq will result in our being worse down the line than we are right now. We do not have the option of holding time still — which exposes the biggest flaw in the "Why Rush to War?" argument. The urgency lies in the fact that every day Saddam Hussein stays in power he grows richer, the global terrorist network to which he has access plans further atrocities and (international inspections notwithstanding) the chance of his acquiring nuclear, chemical and biological weapons grows. To avoid Parmenides' Fallacy, the question we must ask is: Will we be better off in the future if we invade Iraq or if we do not invade? [ ... ] We should also consider the future of the Iraqi civilians. Yes, they would suffer the horrors of war in the near term, which for a time would be even worse than life under the sanctions now. But if an American-led intervention succeeded, the country's oil revenues could once again enrich its people, as well as its schools, hospitals and financial institutions. The Iraqis would be much better off after an invasion than they would be living indefinitely chained to Saddam Hussein. For us, though we live in relative tranquillity at present, we will at least be far less badly off in the future if we act now. Parmenides' Fallacy must not paralyze our imaginations, or our will. SOURCE - ABOVE Opinion, NYT Today's War Is Against Tomorrow's Iraq By PHILIP BOBBITT Philip Bobbitt, a law professor at the University of Texas Published: March 10, 2003 http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/10/opinion/10BOBB.html ---------------------- ꕤ ---------------------- SOURCE - BELOW https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Bobbitt EXTRACTS |  SUMMARY Philip Bobbitt b. Texas, USA distinguished pedigree author, academic, lawyer, and public servant lectured in the United Kingdom best known for work on military strategy & constitutional law and theory Attended: Princeton University Yale Law School Oxford University graduated with an A.B. in philosophy | Princeton University in 1971 president of the Ivy Club and Chairman of the Nassau Lit. 1975 J.D. from Yale Law School, where he was Article Editor of the Yale Law Journal and taught at Yale College at Yale that he met Charles L. Black (1915–2001), who became a mentor to Bobbitt received his M.A & Ph.D. (Modern History) | University of Oxford in 1983 J.D. =  three-year law degree, Doctor Jurisprudence "... word jurisprudence derives from the Latin term juris prudentia, which means "the study, knowledge, or science of law." In the United States jurisprudence commonly means the philosophy of law." [Cornell Uni - example] Charles Black (professor) American scholar of constitutional law  role in the historic Brown v. Board of Education *landmark USA 1954 case* US Supreme Court declared establishment of "separate public schools for black and white students to be unconstitutional." Impeachment: A Handbook  analysis of the law of impeachment during the Watergate scandal. served in the Army Air Corps as a teacher an associate at Davis, Polk, Wardwell, Sunderland & Kiendl  (now Davis, Polk & Wardwell) professor of law at the Columbia University Law School "... He had the moral courage to go against his race, his class, his social circle." "Black also co-authored The Law of Admiralty with Grant Gilmore .. ... constitutional legal scholar ... "The Law of Admiralty" is one of the most influential law books ever written in a practical area of law. Admiralty is the law of the sea, of shipping and shipping contracts, and is a functional, practical area of international law, in which uniformity of the application of law in ports throughout the world is important, and as a result it has evolved somewhat differently from other areas of federal law. "Gilmore and Black," ... so influential that it is one of the few treatises that federal admiralty and international courts cite almost as though ... a primary source of law ..."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Black_%28professor%29 ---------------------- ꕤ  ----------------------  Consitutional Law - Philip Bobbit "... believes that the Constitution's durability rests, in part, in the flexible manner in which it can be and has been interpreted since its creation. ... Bobbitt asserts that all branches of government have a duty to assess the constitutionality of their actions. 'Constitutional Fate' is a commonly used text in courses on constitutional law throughout the US." Government Service - Philip Bobbit extensively in government, for both Democratic and Republican administrations 1970s, he was Associate Counsel to President Carter  Senior director for Critical Infrastructure & senior director for Strategic Planning - Bill Clinton's presidency worked with Lloyd Cutler on the charter of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Lloyd Cutler Intelligence Commission served as White House Counsel during the Democratic administrations of Presidents Carter and Clinton Feb 2004 Lloyd Cutler  appointed to Iraq Intelligence Commission (IIC) IIC = independent panel tasked with investigating US intelligence surrounding the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the allegations that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction Counselor for International Law at State Dept during George H. W. Bush administration served at National Security Council as director for Intelligence Programs National Security Council (NSC) principal forum re national security & foreign policy US President, National Security Advisors, + Cabinet officials { = part of Executive Office of President of USA} Founded by Harry S Truman 1947 - by NATIONAL SECURITY ACT b/c "felt that the diplomacy of State Dept was no longer adequate to contain the USSR" - - - Intent:  coordination & agreement among: Navy Marine Corps Army Air Force Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)  {also created in the National Security Act, 1947}  & other instruments of national security policy Function: ASSIST ON NATIONAL SECURITY & FOREIGN POLICY The Shield of Achilles - Philip Bobbit " ... 900-page work that explicates a theory, verging on philosophy, of historical change in the modern era, and a history of the development of modern constitutional and international law." "...  patterns in the (mainly modern European) history of strategic innovations, major wars, peace conferences, international diplomacy, and constitutional standards for states. Bobbitt also suggests possible future scenarios and policies appropriate to them." "The Shield of Achilles generated much interest in the diplomatic and political community.  Public officials who follow Bobbitt's works include: the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Tony Blair ... the former Prime Minister of Australia, John Howard, who referred to Bobbit's book in a 2004 address to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute." Terror and Consent (2008) "... the Wars for the Twenty-first Century, which applied many of the ideas of The Shield of Achilles to the problems of wars on terror." " ... Senator John McCain praised the book as "the best book I’ve ever read on terrorism ..."  "... Henry Kissinger called Bobbitt, "perhaps the most important political philosopher today."  Tony Blair wrote of Terror and Consent:  "It may be written by an academic but it is actually required reading for political leaders."  David Cameron, the leader of the Tory party in the UK  put it on a list of summer reading for his parliamentary colleagues in 2008.  ---------------------- ꕤ  ----------------------  In Terror & Consent, Bobbitt argued that the only justification for warfare in the 21st century was to protect human rights ---------------------- ꕤ  ---------------------- The Garments of Court and Palace  " ... 2013, Bobbitt published a study of Niccolo Machiavelli entitled The Garments of Court and Palace: Machiavelli and the World That He Made. " "...  argues that only by understanding The Prince as one half of a constitutional treatise on the State (the other being Machiavelli's Discourses) can we reconcile the many otherwise contradictory elements of his work." [emphasises] " ... what he describes as Machiavelli’s reification [reification =error of treating something which is not concrete -eg an idea - as a concrete thing] of the state as an entity with its own reality that is not to be identified with the personal power of the prince. "... especially worth emphasizing in view of the fact that the term state is so often used ... as little more than a synonym for government." "... Bobbitt has already stressed in The Shield of Achilles how much is lost if we refuse to conceptualize the state as a distinct apparatus of power, and he now points to Machiavelli as the originator of this line of thought." "... 2004 Prospect Magazine named him One of Britain's Top 100 Public Intellectuals.  ... writes essays, typically on foreign policy, published in The New York Times, and The Guardian." SOURCE - ABOVE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Bobbitt ---------------------- ꕤ  ---------------------- ASIDE Davis, Polk & Wardwell founded in 1849 multiple name changes international law firm HQ NYC described as:  "Tiffany's of law firms" Revenue:  $975 million (2013) John W. Davis former US Solicitor General |  1924 Democratic presidential nominee US Supreme Court Brown v. Board of Education represented South Carolina  |  in defence of racial segregation Davis developed close ties between the firm and: J.P. Morgan companies Guaranty Trust Company Associated Press International Paper firm represented numerous clients in the financial crisis of 2007-2008 lead counsel to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York {U.S. Treasury’s $250 billion bank capital purchase program} https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_Polk_%26_Wardwell ---------------------- ꕤ  ---------------------- ꕤ